Analysis
The numbers are forecasts and a survey from a vendor that sells to retailers. They reverse Adobe's own findings from 18 months earlier.
In 60 seconds
- Adobe expects AI-referred traffic to US retail sites to rise 130% year over year this holiday season, roughly a doubling.
- It says AI-referred shoppers add items to cart at a 32% higher rate and generate 43% more revenue per visit than non-AI traffic.
- The attitude findings come from a survey of 5,000 US consumers: over 75% of AI-assistant users said they felt more confident buying.
- Retail Dive notes this reverses Adobe's earlier data, when non-AI traffic was worth 128% more.
Impact Layer
- What changed
- Adobe now says traffic referred by AI assistants converts and earns more per visit than other traffic, a reversal of its own findings 18 months earlier.
- Why it matters
- If the reversal holds, AI assistants are becoming a sales channel, not only a source of curious visits, which raises the value of showing up accurately in AI answers.
- Who is affected
- E-commerce and retail marketers planning the holiday season, and teams working on answer engine optimization.
- Martech stack area
- Analytics, SEO & Search, Commerce
- Stack impact
- Analytics should separate AI-assistant referrals as their own channel so teams can compare conversion and revenue per visit over time.
- Business impact
- Moderate Figures are Adobe's projections and survey; we did not read Adobe's own page for the full method.
- Related technologies
- Related vendors
- What to watch
- Adobe's actual holiday results, other analytics vendors' data on AI referrals, and whether AI referrals stay a small share of retail traffic.
On October 1, 2026, Adobe published an outlook on AI-referred shopping for the 2026 holiday season, as reported by Retail Dive. Adobe expects traffic from AI assistants to US retail sites to grow 130% year over year, about a doubling.
What Adobe says
- Shoppers sent by AI assistants added items to their carts at a 32% higher rate than other shoppers.
- AI-referred traffic produced 43% more revenue per visit than non-AI traffic.
- Adobe measured traffic through shoppers’ link engagement and surveyed 5,000 US consumers. More than 75% of shoppers who use AI assistants reported more confidence in a purchase, and two-thirds said they were less likely to return AI-assisted purchases.
A reversal
Retail Dive reports that 18 months earlier Adobe’s data showed non-AI traffic was worth 128% more than AI-referred visits. The new findings, it says, are a complete inversion. That is the notable part: either AI assistants have changed what they send, or the people using them have changed, or both.
Our read
Two points of caution. These are projections and a survey from a vendor that sells analytics and marketing software to retailers, and we have not seen the full method. And AI-referred traffic is still a small share of the whole: Pew Research found that Google users clicked a result link in 8% of visits when an AI summary appeared, against 15% without one, so AI answers can also reduce visits. The practical step is cheap: report AI-assistant referrals as a separate channel in your analytics this season, so you can see their conversion and revenue per visit for yourself before relying on anyone’s projection.
Sources
- Retail Dive: Consumer AI use is a boon for the holidays as AI traffic doubles (opens in a new tab)
The only source we read for Adobe's outlook; every Adobe figure below is as Retail Dive reports it.
- Pew Research Center: Google users are less likely to click on links when an AI summary appears in the results (opens in a new tab)
Context on how AI summaries affect clicks in Google Search.