Executive summary
Adobe expects AI-referred traffic to US retail sites to roughly double this holiday season and says AI-referred visits now convert better and earn more per visit than other traffic, reversing its own earlier findings.
Key findings
- 130% Expected growth in AI-referred traffic
Adobe expects AI-referred traffic to US retail sites to grow 130% year over year this holiday season, about a doubling. - 32% Added to cart more often
AI-referred shoppers added items to carts at a 32% higher rate than others. - 43% Revenue per visit
AI-referred traffic produced 43% more revenue per visit than non-AI traffic. - over 75% Confidence in AI-assisted purchases
More than 75% of shoppers using AI assistants reported more confidence in purchases, and two-thirds said they were less likely to return items.
Methodology
Adobe projections for the 2026 holiday season, with a survey of 5,000 US consumers on attitudes. The summary we read says Adobe measured traffic through shoppers' link engagement. Taken from Retail Dive's report; Adobe's own page was not read.
Adobe publishes analysis of online retail traffic and, on October 1, 2026, released an outlook on AI-referred shopping for the 2026 holiday season, as reported by Retail Dive.
How to read it
This is a vendor forecast from a company that sells analytics and marketing software and has a stake in the story. The traffic figures are Adobe’s projections, and the attitude figures come from a survey of 5,000 US consumers. Retail Dive notes a reversal in Adobe’s own earlier data: 18 months earlier non-AI traffic was worth 128% more than AI-referred visits, and the new findings are a complete inversion. We have not seen Adobe’s own page for the report, so check it for the full method.