Developing
A forecast with stated risks: recession, regulation or a shift in advertiser sentiment could change it.
In 60 seconds
- eMarketer forecasts Meta's 2026 ad revenue at $243.46 billion, up 24.1%, and Google's at $239.54 billion, up 11.9%.
- That gives Meta 26.8% of global digital ad spend and Google 26.4%.
- Drivers named include Advantage+ AI automation, Threads (400 million monthly users) and WhatsApp ads in Status and Channels.
- Barclays projects up to $6 billion of incremental revenue in 2026 from WhatsApp and Threads.
Impact Layer
- What changed
- A forecast puts Meta ahead of Google in total ad revenue for the first time.
- Why it matters
- Budget planners may shift test spend toward Meta's newer surfaces, and AI-driven buying is a main reason.
- Who is affected
- Media planners, performance marketers and agencies.
- Martech stack area
- Advertising
- Stack impact
- Test Advantage+ and the new WhatsApp and Threads placements with a control before moving budget.
- Business impact
- Moderate It is a forecast, and the margin is 0.4 percentage points. Figures about Advantage+ returns are reported from Meta by the source.
- Related technologies
- Related vendors
- What to watch
- Reported quarterly results, regulatory action and ad-surface rollouts.
The Next Web reported on May 28, 2026 on an eMarketer forecast that Meta will overtake Google in global digital ad revenue this year.
The forecast
- Meta: $243.46 billion, growth of 24.1%.
- Google: $239.54 billion, growth of 11.9%.
- Share of global digital ad spend: Meta 26.8%, Google 26.4%.
Drivers named
- Advantage+ automation. The report says more than one million advertisers created more than 15 million ads a month in 2025, with a reported $4.52 return per dollar spent, 22% higher than manual campaigns, and about $60 billion in annualized revenue.
- New surfaces. Threads reached 400 million monthly users after its global launch in January 2026. WhatsApp shows ads in Status and Channels, and Barclays projects $6 billion of incremental revenue in 2026.
- Focus. Meta restructured around AI and advertising and cut 8,000 jobs to redirect savings to infrastructure.
The report adds the caveat that “a global recession, a major regulatory intervention, or a shift in advertiser sentiment could alter the trajectory.”
Our read
A 0.4-point lead is a headline, not a shift in practice. What matters is the cause: automated buying is winning budget. Advertisers should test the newer placements with controls, because reported returns come from the platform. We read a news summary of the forecast, not eMarketer’s own report.
Sources
- The Next Web: Meta set to overtake Google in digital ad revenue in 2026 (opens in a new tab)
Source of the forecast figures, drivers and the stated caveat.